Faced with the spread of the coronavirus,
let’s keep it simple, basic. Hello. Sorry for the sound quality
and the French accent. This is recorded in an apartment on a phone
due to self-confinement. Do you think we’re giving into psychosis? OK. The coronavirus is way ahead of us. It’s progressing
behind a false perception of reality. To know how many people are sick,
there are two ways to count. On one hand, the official cases,
tested and therefore reported. And on the other, the real cases,
people who are contaminated and contagious, but who sometimes
don’t have the slightest symptom. In China, between December 8th
and January 22nd, 444 cases were officially recorded.
In the weeks that followed, the sick flocked to China’s hospitals.
Among them, many cases were diagnosed as positive. The medical teams asked them
how long ago the symptoms appeared. They thus discovered after the fact an estimate of the real cases
over the same period: about 12 000. 27 times more than the official cases.
This is the lead that the virus has on us. Do you think it’s specific to China? Wrong. In France, there is no systematic screening
of the entire population. The number of actual cases
is necessarily considerably higher than officially detected ones.
It’s not a conspiracy, just a reality. So, every time we go out,
we play the virus’ game. Because COVID-19 does not spread by itself.
It travels with us, even without symptoms, and spreads through our social interactions. Each infected person
can infect 2 or 3 individuals. That’s almost double regular flu. Let’s keep that in mind
and get back to the numbers. 20% of cases require hospitalization,
5% are placed in an intensive care unit, and about 2.5% need very intensive care. In France,
we have 5 000 intensive care beds, and 7 364 beds in intensive care units. Not to mention
the staff needed to administer this care. Between January 24th and March 14th,
4 500 official cases were confirmed. This means that the number of actual cases
is inevitably much higher. At 60 000 confirmed cases, our hospitals will be saturated
by the little 20% of serious cases. In concrete terms,
this means no more beds available, and the terrible dilemma for hospital staff
of having to choose who to treat. Who to keep alive and who to let die. One last detail. The mortality rate
for the regular flu is 0.1%. That of coronavirus is between 0.5% and 5%.
The discrepancy is easy to explain. In countries that rapidly implemented
strict confinement, such as South Korea, the mortality rate is below 1%. In others, such as Italy or Iran,
it varies between 3% and 5%. Delaying confinement means increasing
the number of deaths by several thousands or even tens of thousands. That is the violent, brutal reality. There is no longer even any question today
of preventing hospital overcrowding. It’s probably already too late. But we can all play our part
to limit that overcrowding by radically limiting
all our social interactions. All. It’s the only way
to contain the spread of the virus. It’s imperative to stay in our homes. And don’t go outside
for anything but essentials. We may feel isolated, but collectively,
nothing will help more than that.